Wednesday, November 30, 2005
the hole in the middle
I don't want to see Furcal leave. But if it'll take $10 million a year for five seasons to keep him, then see you later, Rafael. If resigning him necessitates trading Marcus Giles after 2006, then please enjoy Chicago, Rafael.
Still, if losing Furcal means dealing Andy Marte, or even Wilson Betemit, for Julio Lugo, then maybe he's worth whatever it'll take. I don't think Betemit will ever be a consistent starter over the course of a whole season, but trading him away for one year of a solid journeyman coming off his career year would be foolish. Maybe a straight-up swap of Betemit for Lugo wouldn't be too bad, but if any other prospects were included, it would be bad news. I'm not too keen on Danys Baez, either, but if anything is done with Tampa, I'd rather get him or Aubrey Huff than Lugo. Johnny Estrada for Lugo may not be an awful move, but I think Betemit will be useful enough for the next few seasons to make him worth keeping, or at least dealing for somebody less unseemly than Lugo.
Here's a deal for Lugo potentially worth making, assuming Furcal bolts: Betemit, Estrada, Kyle Davies, and a solid prospect for Lugo, Baez, and Huff. Those three will cost about $15 million in '06, and will all be free agents afterward. It'd fill the hole in the middle, the back-end of the bullpen, and give us a quality left-handed power-hitter for the middle of the line-up. Davies and Betemit both have potential, but don't seem to be in our long-term plans, so could be expendable in such a deal. Ship LaRoche off somewhere for middle relief, and have Marte split time with Huff at first. Huff's a fairly awful defender, but I'm sure we could stand a year of him at first base. When the year's up, give Marcus Giles whatever he wants in a long-term deal (within reason, of course), see if one of those hot-shot SS prospects are ready for the starting gig, and install Marte at first for the next half-decade or so, at least. Of course it would take more than this to get all three from Tampa, but who knows, maybe they're easy now that Lamar's gone.
If we're adamant about getting a proto/stereotypical lead-off hitter, and equally adamant about dealing with Tampa, and can't get Baez or Huff in a deal with Lugo, then I say forget Julio and see what it'd take to get Joey Gathright. I have more faith in his future productivity than Lugo's.
I don't want to see Furcal leave. But if it'll take $10 million a year for five seasons to keep him, then see you later, Rafael. If resigning him necessitates trading Marcus Giles after 2006, then please enjoy Chicago, Rafael.
Still, if losing Furcal means dealing Andy Marte, or even Wilson Betemit, for Julio Lugo, then maybe he's worth whatever it'll take. I don't think Betemit will ever be a consistent starter over the course of a whole season, but trading him away for one year of a solid journeyman coming off his career year would be foolish. Maybe a straight-up swap of Betemit for Lugo wouldn't be too bad, but if any other prospects were included, it would be bad news. I'm not too keen on Danys Baez, either, but if anything is done with Tampa, I'd rather get him or Aubrey Huff than Lugo. Johnny Estrada for Lugo may not be an awful move, but I think Betemit will be useful enough for the next few seasons to make him worth keeping, or at least dealing for somebody less unseemly than Lugo.
Here's a deal for Lugo potentially worth making, assuming Furcal bolts: Betemit, Estrada, Kyle Davies, and a solid prospect for Lugo, Baez, and Huff. Those three will cost about $15 million in '06, and will all be free agents afterward. It'd fill the hole in the middle, the back-end of the bullpen, and give us a quality left-handed power-hitter for the middle of the line-up. Davies and Betemit both have potential, but don't seem to be in our long-term plans, so could be expendable in such a deal. Ship LaRoche off somewhere for middle relief, and have Marte split time with Huff at first. Huff's a fairly awful defender, but I'm sure we could stand a year of him at first base. When the year's up, give Marcus Giles whatever he wants in a long-term deal (within reason, of course), see if one of those hot-shot SS prospects are ready for the starting gig, and install Marte at first for the next half-decade or so, at least. Of course it would take more than this to get all three from Tampa, but who knows, maybe they're easy now that Lamar's gone.
If we're adamant about getting a proto/stereotypical lead-off hitter, and equally adamant about dealing with Tampa, and can't get Baez or Huff in a deal with Lugo, then I say forget Julio and see what it'd take to get Joey Gathright. I have more faith in his future productivity than Lugo's.
