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Thursday, May 03, 2007
  Kentucky Derby Horses 11-20

<----GREAT HUNTER

I thought I’d give my 2 cents on the horses in this year’s derby to make Saturday fun for everyone. Basically in a nutshell, this is going to be the best Kentucky Derby of the last 20 years easily. First off you have a 20 horse field. HUGE. Secondly, of those 20 – more than HALF of them are legit contenders. That is truly amazing to say. You have 2 strong ass favorites but the horses right behind them in the second tier are MONSTERS. Saturday is going to be fun as shit to watch, seriously. I know you’re going to have other important things to do on Saturday like wear your sombrero down to taco bell and eat a chalupa, but trust me if there was one Kentucky Derby you don’t want to miss…its this one.

Here are some thoughts on the horses who drew slots 11-20. (Means they start the firthest from the rail, on the outside) The rest are tomorrow.


11. BWANA BULL
Track Odds (Thursday): 50-1
Backed into the derby b/c there weren’t any better horses to run. Raced 3 times this year won two of them but the wins were small races. Last race was the Santa Anita derby where he didn’t contend. Usually shoots out the gate very fast then loses power before the midpoint.

12. NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ
Track Odds (Thursday): 8-1
This is the golden child in horse racing right now. “The One”. Imagine Tiger Woods when he was at Stanford. People think he is legitimately a good shot for a triple crown some day, but times a wastin’. As good as he is, his trainers are saying he still hasn’t shown his fastest times on race day yet. Which is scary. Won twice already this year in some good races and is strong to fight off contenders down the stretch. Lost to Scat Daddy in March in the Fountain of Youth – a good watermark race. This could be his stepping stone into history, for realz.

13. Sam P.
Track Odds (Thursday): 20-1
You gotta like this horse, he hangs back chillin’ and then strikes like a beast around the last turn. Hasn’t raced great this year – 3 races: 1 place, 1 show but the reports back from his last race in the Santa Anita Derby was that the jockey didn’t know what he was doing and tried to push him early, which is a mistake with this horse. Not as strong as the other horses but if he can stay with the pack and get in a good position to jump late, it could be interesting. Probably a top ten horse.

14. SCAT DADDY
Track Odds (Thursday): 10-1
This is my boy. Extremely smart horse, doesn’t waste energy and ALWAYS shows up on race day. Two big wins this year and a show for a bunch of money. The thing I like about him is he has decent odds yet he is kinda forgotten in this field. One of the best trainers in Todd Peltcher and is being ridden by last years winner (and Barbaro rider) Edgar Prado. Has 5 weeks of rest (same as Barbaro last year) and should be prime for a blazing win. I like this horse A LOT.

15. TIAGO
Track Odds (Thursday): 15-1
Former Derby winner Giacomo’s half brother. Good blood to say the least about him. Usually starts really slow so don’t freak if he drops back early. Picks up speed and strength over the course of the race. He was a surprise winner at the Santa Anita Derby and people are calling it a fluke plus another DQ win this year. Don’t see him showing.

16. CIRCULAR QUAY
Track Odds (Thursday): 8-1
One of the short list favorites. He has been bounced around from trainer to trainer in the last year but still a strong horse. Won his last race at the Louisiana Derby, BUT (and that’s a major but) that was over 8 weeks ago. That’s a long time off for a horse to not be competitive. Smart and mobile horse he can navigate well through a crowd, and in a 20 horse field – that’s really important. You will be able to tell early on if this is his race. He must look strong off the first turn. People say when you see him race YOU KNOW if he is going to win that day, so watch early. He just looks confident.

17. STORMELLO
Track Odds (Thursday): 30-1
Rough year so far for this horse. He raced twice in Florida in March and that is a lot for a horse with travel and expenditure. Almost won the Fountain of Youth but ran out of gas late. Seems to be his calling card. A good jockey would hold him back through the middle of the race and keep the reserves in the tank. Not close.

18. ANY GIVEN SATURDAY
Track Odds (Thursday): 12-1
Good sleeper horse. REALLY good sleeper horse. He, like NOBIZ was expected to have a killer 2007, and it hasn’t been bad – in 3 starts: 1 win, 1 place, 1 show. But when you’re expected to come home with a 12 person hot tub and only show up with a 3, I guess the party guests get cranky. Tends to get bumped to the outside in turns, which means he is running more. However the horse is strong as hell and can keep his head in a crowd. Fought back 4 and 5 wide finishes this year. Check on him around turn 3, if he’s in the top 6, he’ll finish in the top 3.

19. DOMINICAN
Track Odds (Thursday): 20-1
Dangerous horse mainly because he hasn’t run extremely well on dirt tracks BUT has done EXTREMELY well on other types of tracks. So people don’t know which horse will show up Saturday. If this dude gets on it though – watch the fuck out, he could take the bitch. Way out in the 19th spot is tough because he’ll have to push it to get a good position around turn one, but in previous races when he runs fast early – he usually rests up mid – and is firing on all cylinders at the end. I think it all depends where he is around turn one. That will tell his race. Potential for a top 5 finish if he get a good jump out the gate.

20. GREAT HUNTER **pictured**
Track Odds (Thursday): 15-1
I really like this horse a lot but I don’t think he can win at the 20 spot. That’s a lot of ground to make up before the first turn, which I know is cliché to say but this horse is of average strength. He fucking flies out of the gate – ALWAYS - but I think he’ll use so much energy to make up for his positioning. His last race was terrible in the Bluegrass Stakes where he fell apart. This may cause him to want to get back in good graces on Saturday tho. Sucks cause I think this horse could have done well if he drew in the top 10 slots. Probably come in the top 7.


Reviews of the horses in slots 1-10 tomorrow.
 

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